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01/13/2012 - Honolulu, HI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Graham DeLaet missed most of last season with a herniated disc in his back.
He is playing this season on a major medical extension and has to earn over $650,000 this season in order to keep his tour card for next year.
So far, so good.
DeLaet fired a seven-under 63 on Thursday to grab a two-stroke lead after the opening round of the Sony Open in Hawaii at Waialae Country Club.
The Canadian is searching for his first win on the PGA Tour, though he has won three times on the Canadian Tour.
K.J. Choi, the 2008 champion, and Carl Pettersson are tied for second place at minus-five. They were joined there by Kyle Reifers, who made it back to the PGA Tour this year for the first time since 2007.
Last week's winner Steve Stricker and Webb Simpson, who tied for third behind Stricker at Kapalua, both carded four-under 66s and they headline a group of 12 players that share fifth place.
Through seven holes, DeLaet didn't look like he would be the first-round leader. He birdied the first, but gave that stroke back when he tripped to a bogey on the fourth.
After three more pars, DeLaet caught fire. He rolled in an 11-foot birdie try on No. 8, then chipped in for eagle on the par-five ninth.
DeLaet poured in a 37-footer for birdie at 10 to move to four-under. He kept going with a birdie at the 12th.
The 29-year-old parred his next four holes. At the par-three 17th, DeLaet dropped his tee shot within eight feet and he converted that putt for birdie. He played his third to the par-five 18th to about three feet. DeLaet sank that for a closing birdie and a two-stroke lead.
"It's definitely exciting to be back on the golf course," admitted DeLaet. "Great way to start the year. Just being in Hawaii, period, is a great way to start the year and to come out and fire a nice round in the opening round was great."
Last year, DeLaet only played in four events (two PGA, two Nationwide Tour) due to a herniated disc. He had surgery early last year, but admitted it was probably November before he could take a full swing with his driver.
"I'm still progressing, I wouldn't say I'm 100 percent, but better than even before the real bad injury," DeLaet said. "I'm just so excited to be back out. The one thing with the injury, when you're out here on tour, I had a good season my rookie campaign (2010), and then it was all basically just taken away. And I realize now how fortunate we are to be playing golf for a living and you know, my whole attitude is definitely better."
Choi played the back nine first Thursday and had four birdies and a lone bogey on his opening nine. He parred the first six holes of the front side, then birdied two of the last three holes to share second.
Pettersson had a bogey-free round with three birdies on the front and two more around the turn.
Reifers started on No. 10 with a par. He birdied three of the next four holes, but his non-birdie in that span was a bogey at the 13th. Reifers turned at three-under after a birdie on 17. He had three more birdies and a bogey on the front nine.
NOTES: Last year's winner Mark Wilson struggled to a three-over 73, which left him tied for 121st place...Sixty-three of the 144 players in the field broke par in the opening round.
<< No. 4 Stanford cruises past Utah
Salt Lake City, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nnemkadi Ogwumike scored 18 points and
pulled down 13 rebounds as No. 4 Stanford rolled past Utah, 62-43.
Chiney Ogwumike also recorded a double-double for Stanford (14-1, 5-0 Pac-12)
with 11 points
<< Hawks crush Bobcats sans Horford
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - No Horford, no problem.
The Atlanta Hawks learned they would be without starting center Al Horford for
3-to-4 months Thursday, then responded with a 111-81 dismantling of the
Charlotte Bobcats.
Josh
<< Mississippi State holds off Tennessee
Starkville, MS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It wasn't Dee Bost's best effort, but
Mississippi State's leading scorer came up with a steal and game-sealing dunk
in the closing seconds to give No. 20 Mississippi State a 62-58 victory over
Tenness
<< Niemi helps Sharks blank Jets
Winnipeg, MB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Antti Niemi made 24 saves to earn his second
shutout of the season and lead the San Jose Sharks to a 2-0 victory over the
Winnipeg Jets on Thursday.
Logan Couture and Brad Winchester provided the offen
Irving leads Cavs past Suns >>
Phoenix, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kyrie Irving scored a game-high 26 points and
Antawn Jamison added 23, as the Cavaliers bested the Suns, 101-90, on
Thursday.
Daniel Gibson chipped in 10 points and Anderson Varejao had eight point
Duke survives Virginia's last-second three >>
Durham, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mason Plumlee scored 12 points to lead four
players in double figures, as eighth-ranked Duke hung on to down No. 16
Virginia, 61-58, at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Games at Cameron have become automatic
Howard, Bryant lead All-Star balloting >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard and Los
Angeles Lakers guard Kobe Bryant lead their respective conferences in votes
for the 2012 NBA All-Star Game.
Howard leads all players with 754,737 votes in the
Saint Mary's beats down No. 21 Gonzaga >>
Moraga, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matthew Dellavedova scored 26 points, including
five treys, as Saint Mary's made a big statement with an 83-62 waxing of No.
21 Gonzaga at McKeon Pavilion.
Brad Waldow added 17 points and Stephen Holt scor
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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