Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners headline Haskell

Horseracing Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - Oceanport, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The two leading three-year-old colts in the country top a field of eight for Sunday's $1 million Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park. Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and Preakness champ Lookin At Lucky will be joined by six other three-year-olds.

Trained by Bob Baffert, Lookin At Lucky will be making his first start since winning the Preakness on May 15. The 2009 champion two-year-old male will be ridden by Martin Garcia who guided the colt to victory in the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. The pair will start from the inside post.

Lookin At Lucky, owned by Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman, finished sixth as the 6-1 favorite in the Kentucky Derby when he also broke from the one hole.

"He keeps drawing the rail," Baffert commented by phone.

Installed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite for Sunday, Lookin At Lucky has won seven of 10 career starts for more than $2.1 million.

"He looks like he's ready for a big race. It's not an easy spot, but from here on out none of them are easy," Baffert noted. "We're all in the business to see who has the best horse. When you can beat them it makes it even better. Everyone in the race thinks they have the best horse."

Baffert won the Haskell with Roman Ruler (2005), War Emblem (2002), and Point Given (2001).

Super Saver, trained by Todd Pletcher, will also be making his first start since the Preakness when he was eighth as the 9-5 favorite. The colt is the 3-1 co-favorite with local winner Trappe Shot and will break from post six with Calvin Borel again riding.

Owned by WinStar Farm, Super Saver was third in this year's Tampa Bay Derby and second in the Arkansas Derby prior to capturing the Run for the Roses at 8-1.

The colt has career earnings of better than $1.8 million with three wins in eight starts.

"We feel very good about his fitness level," said Elliott Walden, VP and racing manager for WinStar Farm, "and how he's coming up to the Haskell.

"I think at this time of year in the three-year-old crop, it's a new season. The race is going to be run for the three-year-old champion in the second half of the year. You have a few horses on even ground, Super Saver being one of them. That's one of the reasons we're going to Monmouth. We want it to be settled on the track."

WinStar Farm horses Bluegrass Cat and Any Given Saturday won the Haskell in 2006 and 2007, respectively.

Trappe Shot won Monmouth's Long Branch Stakes earlier this month. The chestnut colt will be ridden by Alan Garcia from the far outside post.

"He's doing great," trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said. "We know he likes it (Monmouth)."

Here is the complete field for the Haskell in post position order: Lookin At Lucky, Martin Garcia, 5-2; Afleet Again, Joe Bravo, 12-1; Ice Box, Jose Lezcano, 9-2; First Dude, Ramon Dominguez, 6-1; Our Dark Knight, Elvis Trujillo, 15-1; Super Saver, Calvin Borel, 3-1; Uptowncharlybrown, Rajiv Maragh, 15-1 and Trappe Shot, Alan Garcia, 3-1.

Last year's Haskell was won by eventual Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. In 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness champ Big Brown captured the race on his way to being voted that year's champion three-year-old colt.

The Haskell, the track's premier race, will be televised on ABC with a post- time of 5:45 p.m. (et).

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

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So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

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